Scenario Planning & Strategic Contingency Framework

Build a strategic scenario planning framework for my startup. Use the following inputs: **Company / Product:** {&{COMPANY_AND_PRODUCT}} **Current Stage & Metrics:** {&{CURRENT_METRICS}} **Planning Horizon:** {&{PLANNING_HORIZON}} (e.g., next 18 months) **Biggest External Variable (macro, competitive, regulatory):** {&{BIGGEST_EXTERNAL_VARIABLE}} **Current Burn & Runway:** {&{BURN_AND_RUNWAY}} **Next Fundraising Target:** {&{NEXT_RAISE}} --- Deliver the following: **1. Three Scenario Narratives** For each scenario (Base / Upside / Crisis): - Scenario name and 2-sentence narrative (what does the world look like in this scenario?) - Probability estimate (%) - Defining metrics at the end of the planning horizon **2. Trigger Conditions** For each scenario, name 3 leading indicators (metrics or observable events) that signal this scenario is unfolding. These should be checkable monthly. Present as a table: Scenario | Indicator 1 | Indicator 2 | Indicator 3 **3. Strategic Response Playbook** For each scenario, provide the 4-point response playbook: - Hiring posture (accelerate / maintain / freeze) - Burn posture (increase investment / maintain / reduce by X%) - GTM focus (expand / narrow / double down on one channel) - Fundraising posture (process now / wait / bridge) **4. Decision Pre-Commitments** For the Base and Crisis scenarios, identify 3 decisions the leadership team commits to making if the scenario is confirmed. These are decided today, in advance. **5. Monthly Monitoring Dashboard** Name the 5 leading indicators the leadership team reviews monthly to determine which scenario is unfolding. For each: metric, threshold, and scenario it signals.